I think that you should give her something that you made by yourself. For one, it won't be too expensive because usually buying the materials to make your own stuff is cheaper than actually buying the pre-made item. And second, it'll show that you like and care about her. You put your time into buying materials and making a present just for her, which shows that you were thinking of her big time. This will definitely make her feel special, since your gift will have more sentimental value. Finally, it won't be over the top. Unless you are a professional at making whatever it is you decide to make, the present won't be over the top. Of course you have to make it look nice, but it'll definitely have a touch of something that says "homemade", which are rarely too extravagant.
Some ideas on what to make are ornaments with her name on it or symbols that are meaningful to her, delicious food, clothing (if you can knit or learn how to), hair pins, picture frames, etc. These things are simple so they won't be over the top, but they are nice and will show her that you put effort into it.